Herbie's Burgers vs Papa Murphy's

Papa Murphy’s is the stronger software-sales opportunity right now, and it comes down to terrain and TAM. The approved-supplier procurement model unlocks a direct line to 965 franchised operators—each a potential deal for POS, scheduling, or marketing automation. That’s a massive, fragmented buyer pool compared to Herbie’s 6 corporately controlled units, where a single franchisor decision gates the entire account. Even a low single-digit penetration rate across Papa Murphy’s franchise base dwarfs the total contract value of winning 100% of Herbie’s. The higher unit-level investment range at Papa Murphy’s also signals operators with enough capital to absorb a software line item, making budget less of an objection than the raw unit count suggests.

The tradeoff is unit growth: Herbie’s 20% YoY expansion hints at a brand in build mode, while Papa Murphy’s is contracting at -3.6%. But growth from a base of six is a rounding error in pipeline terms—adding one or two units a year doesn’t move the needle. Meanwhile, a shrinking system often forces franchisees to hunt for efficiency gains, which plays directly into back-office and automation tools. Timing also favors Papa Murphy’s: a 2026 FDD means the franchisee roster and financials are fresh, so you’re not selling into stale data. The real risk is franchisee churn, but the sheer volume of active units more than compensates, especially when you can sequence campaigns by region or operator size without a franchisor gatekeeper blocking access.

Verdict: Papa Murphy’s wins on addressable market and procurement openness, making it the higher-ceiling play despite negative unit growth.