CHESTER'S vs Papa Murphy's

Papa Murphy’s is the stronger target right now, and the advantage isn’t close. Total units (1,014 vs. 918) give you a larger total addressable market, and the milder unit decline (-3.6% vs. -7.6%) means the installed base is eroding slow enough that replacement cycles and new-location openings still generate pipeline. Both are shrinking, but timing favors the brand that isn't in a free fall—Chester’s lost units at twice the rate, shrinking your opportunity with every churn event.

Budget is the dimension that slams the door shut on Chester’s. Papa Murphy’s franchisees commit $450K–$693K to open, while Chester’s can launch for as little as $27.5K. That delta isn’t just academic—it signals a fundamentally different franchisee profile: one operator is writing meaningful checks, carrying debt, and needs back-office, scheduling, and POS efficiency to protect margin; the other is running a shoestring operation that likely sees a $200/month software subscription as a threat, not a tool. When you sell multi-module platforms, you’re hunting operators who can buy, and Papa Murphy’s investment range puts them in a budget tier that can actually sign a deal.

The tradeoff is that you’re still selling into a contracting system, and the approved-supplier procurement model at both brands means you may face gatekeeping on integrations or supplier ties. But if you’re forced to choose where to spend scarce sales effort, higher per-unit owner investment and a larger surviving base of 965 franchised locations tilt the math decisively toward Papa Murphy’s. Pricing power lives where replacement cost is painful and the checkbook is open.

Verdict: Papa Murphy’s wins on TAM, timing, and budget—target them now, and ignore Chester’s until the unit bleed stops.