California Tortilla Group vs Papa Murphy's

Papa Murphy’s is the stronger opportunity, and it comes down to total addressable market (TAM). With 965 franchised units versus California Tortilla Group’s 15, the sheer volume of doors available to sell into dwarfs any per-unit advantage the smaller brand might offer. Even factoring in Papa Murphy’s slight negative unit growth (-3.6% YoY), the installed base is so large that a vendor can absorb some churn and still close materially more deals. The investment ranges are comparable, and both brands operate on the same 5% royalty and 2% ad fund structure, so unit-level economics don’t tip the scale—scale itself does.

The meaningful tradeoff is budget depth versus territory breadth. California Tortilla Group’s $971K AUV suggests operators have more cash flow to reinvest in technology, and a 22-unit system means a vendor could achieve deep penetration quickly, potentially becoming the de facto standard with fewer sales cycles. But that’s a small pond. Papa Murphy’s offers a national footprint where a vendor can build a repeatable outbound motion, segment franchisees by sophistication, and land multi-unit operators who control clusters of stores. The procurement model is identical (approved supplier), so the gatekeeper dynamic doesn’t favor one brand over the other—only the number of potential logos does.

Timing slightly favors Papa Murphy’s as well. A system contracting at -3.6% is under pressure to improve efficiency and drive traffic; operators are likely more receptive to POS, scheduling, and marketing automation that can cut labor costs or boost ticket size. California Tortilla Group’s flat, stable profile doesn’t create the same urgency. The risk is that Papa Murphy’s unit count continues to erode, shrinking the TAM over a multi-year sales horizon, but the starting gap is so wide that even a 10% further decline leaves over 850 franchised locations—still a 50x advantage.

Verdict: Papa Murphy’s wins on TAM and urgency, making it the superior near-term sales target despite negative unit growth.