Burrito Blvd vs Papa Murphy's

Papa Murphy’s is the stronger opportunity right now, and it’s not close. The dimension that wins is TAM—total addressable market. With 965 franchised units against Burrito Blvd’s 2, you’re looking at a real pipeline versus a science project. Even with a -3.6% unit contraction, the installed base is large enough that churn creates re-sell opportunities and add-on expansion inside existing accounts can outrun shrinkage. AUV sits at roughly $493K for Burrito Blvd versus an implied ~$500K+ for Papa Murphy’s (based on investment-band norms), so per-unit budget isn’t a differentiator. The procurement model is identical, and both run lean royalty/ad structures, so no terrain advantage either way.

The meaningful tradeoff is growth trajectory versus scale. Burrito Blvd’s flat unit count signals stagnation, not stability—two franchised units means you’re one owner-operator decision away from zero logos. Papa Murphy’s negative growth is a real headwind, but a 965-unit base gives you a multi-year land-and-expand motion: POS, scheduling, and back-office consolidation plays across a fragmented franchisee base that likely still runs on legacy or patchwork systems. Timing favors Papa Murphy’s precisely because contraction forces operators to cut costs and consolidate vendors, which is when software displacement happens. Burrito Blvd’s timing is nonexistent; there’s no urgency in a two-unit franchise system.

Verdict: Papa Murphy’s wins on sheer TAM and replacement-cycle timing, despite negative unit growth; Burrito Blvd is too small to matter.