Biggby Coffee vs Papa Murphy's

Biggby Coffee is the stronger opportunity right now, and the decision hinges on budget and timing over sheer unit count. Biggby’s $720k AUV and high investment range signal franchisees with deeper pockets and a greater willingness to spend on operational software—POS, marketing automation, and back-office tools that directly impact revenue. That budget dimension dwarfs Papa Murphy’s lower-cost model, where a $450k–$693k investment implies thinner margins and less appetite for discretionary tech spend. Meanwhile, Biggby’s 10% unit growth is a timing accelerant: every new store is a greenfield deployment, and a growing system means the franchisor is actively seeking scalable solutions. Papa Murphy’s 3.6% annual contraction, by contrast, turns its 1,014-unit TAM into a melting ice cube—existing franchisees are more likely to cut costs than buy new software.

The terrain tradeoff is real but manageable. Papa Murphy’s approved-supplier model looks easier on paper because you can sell direct to franchisees, yet that access is worthless when operators are closing stores and pinching pennies. Biggby’s franchisor-controlled procurement is a gatekeeper model, but it concentrates the sale: win the franchisor, and you lock in 420 units plus every future opening. The due FDD filing is actually a timing tailwind—it suggests an upcoming system-wide refresh where a vendor can shape the tech stack before the new FDD locks requirements in place. The risk of a longer sales cycle is outweighed by the reward of a captive, expanding base with real budget.

Verdict: Biggby Coffee’s growth and unit economics make it the superior near-term target, despite the closed procurement gate.