Bellacino’s Pizza & Grinders vs Papa Murphy's

Papa Murphy’s gives us the TAM play—1,014 total units, 965 of them franchised—so the account list alone is 20x larger before a single cold call. With a CURRENT FDD (2026), the brand is actively disclosing and operating, which means location data is fresh, franchisee contact rosters are more accurate, and there’s an in-year compliance cycle to attach our software to. The approved-supplier procurement model also signals that franchisees have some discretion on back-office or POS stack, lowering the gatekeeper friction compared to a rigid corporate mandate. The tradeoff is brutal unit contraction (-3.6% YoY), so net-dollar retention will be a fight: we’d be selling into a shrinking footprint where franchisees are scrutinizing every software line.

Bellacino’s is the timing-and-terrain counterargument. Zero unit growth isn’t expansion, but it isn’t bleeding, either—a flat 52-unit base means every win is pure new-logo revenue without churn from closures eating the pipeline. The lower investment range ($267K–$409K) and light 4% royalty put more cashflow margin inside the franchisee P&L for software budget, and a small, dormant-filing concept often has no incumbent vendor lock-in, giving us terrain with almost no competitive noise. The meaningful compromise is scale: the TAM is tiny, and a single yes-or-no from the franchisor could kill or accelerate the entire play instantly.

Verdict: Papa Murphy’s is the higher-upside software opportunity right now because its massive installed base and active disclosure cycle give us a repeatable, territory-mappable TAM that outweighs the contraction risk, while Bellacino’s is a tactical sniper bet for a budget-rich, empty-calendar account list.