BeaverTails vs Papa Murphy's

BeaverTails is a non-starter. Two units—both franchised—gives you a total addressable market of exactly two logos. Even if you close both at a premium ACV, the upside is capped at a rounding error. Zero unit growth confirms there is no expansion motion to ride. The higher-end investment range might suggest some budget availability, but with only two operators writing checks, your pipeline dies after the first call. This is a terrain play with no terrain.

Papa Murphy’s brings a real TAM: 965 franchised units across 1,014 total locations. That is a proper outbound motion with room for land-and-expand. The investment band is tighter and the low end is slightly lower than BeaverTails, which signals operators who are more cost-conscious—but the 5% royalty and 2% ad fund tell you the system already runs on standardized cost discipline. The -3.6% unit decline is the tradeoff. You are selling into a shrinking base, which means your timing has to be sharp: capture budget before closures accelerate, and position your platform as a margin-protection lever, not a growth toy.

The meaningful tradeoff is TAM versus trajectory. BeaverTails is flat but microscopic. Papa Murphy’s is contracting but large enough to matter. In enterprise B2B sales, volume cures most sins. A declining 965-unit base still holds more active buying windows this quarter than a stable two-unit brand will produce in a decade.

Verdict: Papa Murphy’s is the only viable target—shrinkage risk is real but manageable; BeaverTails offers no pipeline at all.