Aunt Millie's Bakeries vs Papa Murphy's

Papa Murphy’s is the stronger target, and it’s not close. The dimension that wins here is TAM, with a side of timing. With 965 franchised units against Aunt Millie’s 115, you’re looking at an addressable base that’s over 8x larger. That gap in unit count is the whole ballgame in franchise sales, where penetration rate matters more than per-unit contract value. The growth trajectory reinforces the choice: Aunt Millie’s is in freefall at -25% unit growth, which signals a shrinking, distressed base that will be cutting costs, not buying new software. Papa Murphy’s -3.6% decline is a slow leak, not a hemorrhage, leaving a large, stable installed base that still needs to run operations.

The meaningful tradeoff is terrain. Papa Murphy’s approved-supplier procurement model means the franchisor doesn’t mandate a single tech stack, so you’ll have to sell unit-by-unit or win over a fragmented owner group. That’s harder than selling into Aunt Millie’s franchisor-controlled environment, where one yes at the top could force adoption across the system. But that top-down advantage is theoretical when the system is imploding. A controlled procurement model attached to a dying brand is a locked door on an empty house.

Budget is a secondary win for Papa Murphy’s. The investment range starts at $450K, which filters for operators with real capital and a survival instinct. These franchisees are writing bigger checks to stay open and will pay for software that protects that investment. Aunt Millie’s sub-$200K high-end investment attracts undercapitalized operators who will churn out before your contract term is up.

Verdict: Papa Murphy’s wins on TAM, stability, and operator budget, and the open-terrain sales friction is a solvable problem against a base this large.