Arwa Coffee vs Papa Murphy's

Papa Murphy’s is the stronger opportunity right now, and it’s not close. The dimension that wins is TAM: 965 franchised units versus Arwa’s 6. Even with a -3.6% unit decline, the installed base is two orders of magnitude larger. That means a 1% penetration rate at Papa Murphy’s lands nearly 10 deals—more than Arwa’s entire franchise system. The higher average investment range ($450K–$693K) also signals operators with enough capital intensity to need real back-office and scheduling tooling, not just a lightweight POS. The 5% royalty and 2% ad fund burden gives owners a clear incentive to automate labor and marketing spend, which maps directly to your stack.

The tradeoff is timing and terrain. Arwa is tiny but growing from a near-zero base, with no negative unit growth flagged and a lower investment floor ($237K) that could attract first-time franchisees who are tech-forward and unencumbered by legacy systems. That’s a greenfield account list where you can set the standard. Papa Murphy’s, by contrast, is a mature, shrinking network where you’ll be displacing incumbents in a procurement environment that’s already gated by approved suppliers. The sales cycle will be a grind of rip-and-replace, not a land-grab.

But displacement in a large, pressured system beats evangelism in a 6-unit brand when you’re selling software that thrives on multi-location deal size. The unit economics at Papa Murphy’s create urgency around cost control, and the sheer volume of prospects lets you build a repeatable outbound motion with meaningful ACV aggregation. Arwa is a bet on future potential; Papa Murphy’s is a bet on math you can execute against today.

Verdict: Papa Murphy’s wins on TAM and budget pressure, making it the higher-probability, higher-ceiling target right now despite negative unit growth.