Sub Station II vs Papa Murphy's

Papa Murphy’s gives you the terrain and TAM that matter for a platform play. With 965 franchised units, you’re looking at a real installed base—enough density to make a reference pipeline work and justify a segment-specific integration sprint. The negative unit growth (-3.6%) is a timing risk, not a dealbreaker: shrinking networks create churn urgency, and operators who stay are more likely to rip out legacy tooling to protect margins. The investment band ($450K–$693K) is tight enough that you can build a clean ROI model without getting dragged into extreme build-out variance. The procurement model is approved-supplier, not open, which means you’ll need to win corporate before you sell to franchisees—slower to open, but once you’re in, the account is sticky and the ACV per relationship is high.

Sub Station II’s 3.2% unit growth and $600K AUV look attractive on a per-unit basis, but the total addressable market is too thin. Thirty-two franchised units is a micro-portfolio, not a beachhead. You’ll burn the same pre-sales cycles you’d spend on a 100-unit brand and cap your upside at a handful of deals. The wide investment range ($318K–$926K) also signals inconsistent store economics, which makes a uniform software value prop harder to land. Growth alone doesn’t pay your pipeline—installed base does.

The tradeoff is reach versus momentum. Sub Station II has the momentum metric, but Papa Murphy’s has the budget density and account size that turn a vertical software investment into real ARR. You take the shrinking giant with 965 doors over the growing micro-brand every time when you’re selling operations software that needs scale to justify the build.

Verdict: Papa Murphy’s is the stronger software-sales opportunity right now because installed base and budget density outweigh unit growth when you’re selling into a consolidating franchise network.