Dunn Brothers Coffee vs Papa Murphy's

If we’re picking a beachhead for software sales, Papa Murphy’s is the stronger opportunity today — and it’s not close. The total addressable market dwarfs Dunn Brothers: 1,014 total units versus 48, with 965 franchised doors that can sign independently or influence chain-wide deals. That’s 20x the logo count. Even with negative unit growth (-3.6% YoY), the absolute shrinkage at Papa Murphy’s is roughly 38 units per year against Dunn Brothers’ 5 — painful, but the base is so large that churn still leaves hundreds of replacement or upsell targets. More doors means more seat licenses, more transaction volume, and a far bigger renewal book over time.

The budget dimension also tilts toward Papa Murphy’s, but for a specific reason: it’s a lower-capital concept with a tighter investment band ($450K–$693K vs. Dunn’s $456K–$799K) and a lower initial franchise fee ($25K vs. $40K). While AUV isn’t provided for Papa Murphy’s, the narrower cost structure signals that franchisees are under less real-estate and build-out pressure, which makes them less likely to freeze discretionary software spending during a downturn. Dunn Brothers’ higher average unit revenue ($600K) is attractive on a per-site basis, but with only 44 franchised locations and a brutal -10.2% unit decline, you’re effectively selling into a shrinking, premium niche that will struggle to justify a platform investment across a tiny fleet.

The meaningful tradeoff is terrain: Papa Murphy’s is a scaled, nationally dispersed brand with an approved-supplier procurement model, meaning you can chip away regionally, build references, and eventually compete for a preferred-vendor slot across a massive franchise base. Timing matters here — Papa Murphy’s filed a more recent FDD (2026 vs. 2025), signaling active franchise development and compliance oversight, which aligns with a vendor trying to attach to a live, governed ecosystem rather than one in harvest mode. Dunn Brothers’ opportunity is concentrated and potentially high-margin per seat, but when unit counts are this low and falling, it’s a consulting engagement, not a scalable software territory.

Verdict: Target Papa Murphy’s — the TAM and procurement terrain beat Dunn Brothers’ per-unit economics by an order of magnitude.