Duck Donuts vs Papa Murphy's

Duck Donuts is the stronger software-sales opportunity right now, and it comes down to timing and terrain. The 7.5% unit growth is the decisive dimension here—143 franchised units expanding at that clip means a steady stream of new store openings, each one a greenfield deployment with no legacy system to rip out. That’s the sweet spot for a vendor: sell into the opening checklist when budget is allocated and decision-making is centralized with the franchise development team. The lower total unit count (144) is actually an advantage at this stage—fewer existing locations means less noise from distressed operators and more focus on the growth engine. A $537K AUV with a 6% royalty gives franchisees enough margin to invest in technology that drives ticket size and repeat visits, exactly what a POS-plus-marketing stack promises.

Papa Murphy’s looks tempting on paper with 965 franchised units, but that’s a trap. Negative unit growth (-3.6%) signals a system in contraction—closures, non-renewals, and operators too cash-strapped to upgrade anything. Selling software into a shrinking franchise base is a grind: you’re fighting for replacement deals against entrenched incumbents, and the 5% royalty on a take-and-bake model doesn’t leave much for tech spend. The larger TAM is illusory when the terrain is littered with dying locations and franchisees focused on survival, not optimization.

The tradeoff is real: you sacrifice immediate TAM breadth for a concentrated, high-velocity growth channel. Duck Donuts gives you a tight, expanding footprint where you can land a brand-level deal and ride the unit count upward. Papa Murphy’s offers volume but no momentum. In franchise software sales, momentum beats mass every time.

Verdict: Duck Donuts wins on timing and terrain—growth trajectory over decaying installed base.