Cold Stone Creamery vs Papa Murphy's

Papa Murphy’s is the stronger software-sales opportunity right now, and it isn’t close. The decision hinges on total addressable market: 965 franchised units versus Cold Stone’s 103. Even with Papa Murphy’s faster unit contraction (-3.6% vs. -1.9% YoY), the sheer volume of storefronts means an order-of-magnitude larger pipeline for POS, scheduling, and back-office deals. Both brands operate on an approved-supplier procurement model, so terrain is a wash, and investment ranges are comparable, suggesting similar per-unit budget capacity. The meaningful tradeoff is timing versus TAM: Cold Stone’s slightly shallower decline might preserve a tiny base longer, but a vendor chasing near-term revenue can’t scale on a 100-unit pool. Papa Murphy’s gives you 9x the at-bats today, and even with annualized churn, the absolute number of units turning over or upgrading will swamp Cold Stone’s entire system for years.

Verdict: Papa Murphy’s wins on TAM by a margin that no single-digit growth delta can offset.